The impact of COVID-19 on Turkey’s tourism sector: fresh evidence from the fractional integration approach

YÜCEL A. G., Koksal C., Acar S., Gil-Alana L. A.

Applied Economics, cilt.54, sa.27, ss.3074-3087, 2022 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 54 Sayı: 27
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2047602
  • Dergi Adı: Applied Economics
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, EconLit, Geobase, Index Islamicus, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.3074-3087
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Tourism, Turkey, COVID-19, persistence, fractional integration, ARRIVALS STATIONARY EVIDENCE, AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES, LED-GROWTH HYPOTHESIS, UNIT-ROOT TESTS, VISITOR ARRIVALS, MARKETS EVIDENCE, EFFICIENT TESTS, ECONOMIC-GROWTH, AVIAN FLU, PERMANENT
  • Kayseri Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

© 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the profound effects of COVID-19 on Turkey’s tourism sector will be permanent or transitory. Such an investigation deserves attention during the ongoing pandemic due to the importance of Turkey in the international tourism industry. To better understand and analyze the dynamics of tourism, we examine a long period of time spanning from January 1977 to March 2021 using a fractional integration approach. The findings provide clear-cut evidence that the shocks to the tourism sector display very low degrees of persistence in the pre-pandemic period whereas degrees of persistence in the post-pandemic period are very high. We also identify the changes in the persistence of tourism month by month. Overall, the impacts of COVID-19 on Turkey’s tourism will not be transitory. Therefore, the government should be actively involved in the recovery process of the tourism sector if Turkey wants to reach the number of tourist arrivals it once used to host. Also, the methodology employed in this study could be used as a benchmark to explore the impacts of the ongoing pandemic on other sectors (JEL: C22: I15: L83: Z32).