New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code

Bilgil H.

AIMS MATHEMATICS, cilt.6, sa.2, ss.1497-1514, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 6 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3934/math.2021091
  • Dergi Adı: AIMS MATHEMATICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1497-1514
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: grey systems, COVID-19 predictions, grey forecasting model, least squares method, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, GM 1,1, PREDICTION, COUNTRIES
  • Kayseri Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

Grey theory is an approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. In some cases, a grey forecasting model may yield unacceptable forecasting errors. In this work, a new exponential grey prediction model, which is called as EXGM (1,1), is proposed. By using this model, new cases, deaths and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Turkey is forecast. Numerical results show that EXGM (1,1) is a model that performs more accurately than the comparison models.