New grey forecasting model with its application and computer code

Bilgil H.

AIMS MATHEMATICS, vol.6, no.2, pp.1497-1514, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 6 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.3934/math.2021091
  • Journal Name: AIMS MATHEMATICS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Page Numbers: pp.1497-1514
  • Keywords: grey systems, COVID-19 predictions, grey forecasting model, least squares method, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, GM 1,1, PREDICTION, COUNTRIES
  • Kayseri University Affiliated: No


Grey theory is an approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. In some cases, a grey forecasting model may yield unacceptable forecasting errors. In this work, a new exponential grey prediction model, which is called as EXGM (1,1), is proposed. By using this model, new cases, deaths and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Turkey is forecast. Numerical results show that EXGM (1,1) is a model that performs more accurately than the comparison models.