China Total Energy Consumption Forecast with Optimized Continuous Conformable Fractional Grey Model

Bilgil, HALİS; Erdinç, Ümmügülsüm

China Total Energy Consumption Forecast with Optimized Continuous Conformable Fractional Grey Model

Alphanumeric Journal, cilt.12, sa.3, ss.157-168, 2024 (TRDizin)

Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
Cilt numarası: 12 Sayı: 3
Basım Tarihi: 2024
Dergi Adı: Alphanumeric Journal
Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: EconLit, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM), Asos İndeks, Sobiad Atıf Dizini
Sayfa Sayıları: ss.157-168
Kayseri Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

One of the methods used for forecasting of the time series is the fractional grey modeling approach. In this paper, the OCCFGM(1,1) model is utilized to forecasting of the total energy consumption data of China. The optimal values of α" role="presentation" >α $α$ and r" role="presentation" >r $r$ , which are fractional parameters in the model, are calculated using the Brute Force algorithm. Data collected from official sources from 2013 to 2022 are used to build the forecasting model, while data from 2013 to 2020 are employed to evaluate the accuracy at the model. The obtained results indicate that the OCCFGM(1,1) model exhibits superior forecasting performance compared to the other models under consideration.