ANALYZING COAL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA: FORECASTING WITH THE ECFGM(1, 1) MODEL AND A PERSPECTIVE ON THE FUTURE

Erdinç Ü., Bilgil H.

Turkish Journal of Forecasting , cilt.8, sa.2, ss.45-53, 2024 (Hakemli Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 8 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2024
  • Doi Numarası: 10.34110/forecasting.1458131
  • Dergi Adı: Turkish Journal of Forecasting
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Index Copernicus, Sobiad Atıf Dizini
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.45-53
  • Kayseri Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The study analyzes coal consumption using the ECFGM(1, 1) model by utilizing time series data provided by the Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 2016-2019. The optimal α value, determined using the Brute Force Algorithm, is utilized to establish the model’s parameters and formulate the solution function. Subsequently, the model’s predictive accuracy is assessed using data from the years 2020-2022, with the resulting Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reflecting the model’s overall performance.