Developing numerical equality to regional intensity–duration–frequency curves using evolutionary algorithms and multi-gene genetic programming


Acta Geophysica, vol.71, no.1, pp.469-488, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 71 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11600-022-00883-8
  • Journal Name: Acta Geophysica
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.469-488
  • Keywords: Multi-gene genetic programming, Genetic algorithm, Particle swarm optimization, Turkey, Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis, PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION, IDF CURVES, RAINFALL, MODEL, PRECIPITATION, PERFORMANCE, DERIVATION, EXTREMES
  • Kayseri University Affiliated: No


© 2022, The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences.This study aims to carry out regional intensity − duration − frequency (IDF) equality using the relationship with IDF obtained from point frequency analysis. Eleven empirical equations used in the literature for seven climate regions of Turkey were calibrated using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) optimization techniques and the obtained results were compared. In addition, in this study, new regional IDF equations were obtained for each region utilizing Multi-Gene Genetic Programming (MGGP) method. Finally, Kruskal–Wallis (KW) test was applied to the IDF values obtained from the methods and the observed values. As a result of the study, it was observed that the coefficients of 11 empirical equations calibrated with PSO, and GA techniques were different from each other. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute relative error (MARE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Taylor diagram were used to evaluate the performances of PSO, GA, and MGGP techniques. According to the performance criteria, it has been determined that the IDF equations obtained by the MGGP method for the Eastern Anatolia, Aegean, Southeastern Anatolia, and Central Anatolia regions are more successful than the empirical equations calibrated with the PSO and GA method. The empirical IDF equations produced with PSO and the IDF equations acquired with MGGP have similar findings in the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Marmara. In addition, the KW test results showed that the data of all models were from the same population.