Connectedness and spillover effects of US climate policy uncertainty on energy stock, alternative energy stock, and carbon future

Hoque M. E., Soo-Wah L., BİLGİLİ F., Ali M. H.

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, vol.30, no.7, pp.18956-18972, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 30 Issue: 7
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11356-022-23464-0
  • Journal Name: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, ABI/INFORM, Aerospace Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Environment Index, Geobase, MEDLINE, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.18956-18972
  • Keywords: Alternative energy stock, Climate policy, Energy stock, Carbon future, VOLATILITY, MARKETS, INVESTMENT, RETURNS, OIL
  • Kayseri University Affiliated: No


© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.Global warming is pressuring policymakers to change climate policies in shifting the global economy onto a net-zero pathway. While financial assets are responsive to policy changes and development, climate change policies are becoming increasingly unpredictable, making policy decision less certain. This study investigates connectedness and spillover effects of US climate policy uncertainty on energy stocks, alternative energy stocks, and carbon emissions futures. We analyzed spillover and connectedness before and after the Paris Agreement. We employed monthly frequency data from August 2005 to March 2021 and applied DY (2012) method and MGARCH approach. We found that world energy stocks and carbon emissions futures are connected to US climate policy uncertainty. Uncertainty in climate policy and world energy stocks act as information transmitters in return spillover, while global alternative energy and carbon market are shock receivers. On volatility spillover, climate policy uncertainty, energy stocks, and carbon emissions future are shocks transmitters, while alternative energy stocks are receivers. We observe increase in connectedness following the Paris Agreement suggesting strengthened global efforts in tackling climate change. DCC and ADCC estimations revealed spillover effects of climate policy on futures returns and volatilities of world energy stocks and carbon emissions futures and the shocks could be transmitted through to the energy sector. During period of uncertainty in US climate policy, carbon allowances can potentially serve as a safe haven for energy stocks and provide downside protection for alternative energy stocks, hence hedging against climate transition risks.