An optimized continuous fractional grey model for forecasting of the time dependent real world cases


Özturk Z., Bilgil H., Erdinc U.

HACETTEPE JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS, cilt.51, sa.1, ss.308-326, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 51 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.15672/hujms.939543
  • Dergi Adı: HACETTEPE JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, zbMATH, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.308-326
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Grey systems, conformable fractional derivative, fractional grey model, OCCFGM model, SYSTEM MODEL, GM 1,1, PREDICT, CONSUMPTION, COUNTRIES
  • Kayseri Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

The new priority in the grey modelling is to build new models that have more accurate forecasting power than the previous ones. This paper aims to develop the prediction performance of the existing continuous grey models. Therefore, a novel continuous grey model (OCCFGM(1,1)) is proposed with conformable fractional derivative. The numerical results of three case studies show that the novel model's prediction accuracy is higher than other competitive models, and the proposed model is more reasonable for practical cases.