An optimized continuous fractional grey model for forecasting of the time dependent real world cases

Özturk Z., Bilgil H., Erdinc U.

HACETTEPE JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS, vol.51, no.1, pp.308-326, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 51 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.15672/hujms.939543
  • Journal Name: HACETTEPE JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, zbMATH, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.308-326
  • Keywords: Grey systems, conformable fractional derivative, fractional grey model, OCCFGM model, SYSTEM MODEL, GM 1,1, PREDICT, CONSUMPTION, COUNTRIES
  • Kayseri University Affiliated: No

Abstract

The new priority in the grey modelling is to build new models that have more accurate forecasting power than the previous ones. This paper aims to develop the prediction performance of the existing continuous grey models. Therefore, a novel continuous grey model (OCCFGM(1,1)) is proposed with conformable fractional derivative. The numerical results of three case studies show that the novel model's prediction accuracy is higher than other competitive models, and the proposed model is more reasonable for practical cases.