A Novel Fractional Forecasting Model for Time Dependent Real World Cases


Erdinç Ü., Bilgil H., Öztürk Z.

REVSTAT STATISTICAL JOURNAL, vol.33, pp.1-21, 2022 (SCI-Expanded)

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 33
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Journal Name: REVSTAT STATISTICAL JOURNAL
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, zbMATH
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-21
  • Kayseri University Affiliated: No

Abstract

The grey modelling in the prediction of time series has been one of the interestingstudy fields recently due to its efficiency and convenience. Fractional grey models,on the other hand, have become preferable, despite the difficulty in calculations,since they give more effective results than standard models. Difficulties in fractionalaccumulation and difference calculations have begun to be overcome thanks to newdefinitions and theorems made in recent years. The new trend in grey modelling isto compose models that are more useful than the previous ones and give results withless error. In this paper, a new grey model derived from the conformable fractionalorder is defined and it is shown that more effective estimates are made compared tothe models created in recent years. The verification of the method is shown with realdata set. The results show that the proposed conformable fractional grey model ismore effective than the existing models.