Application of Standard and Exponential Grey Forecasting Models on Turkeys Education Expenditures

Akyuz L., Bilgil H.

New Trends in Mathematical Science, cilt.10, ss.9-19, 2022 (Hakemli Dergi)

Özet

Grey System Theory predicts the behaviour of unknown systems using a small amount of data. Grey System Theory is an interdisciplinary science field and has been successfully applied to many fields. In this study, the Grey System Theory is used to estimate Turkey’s education expenditures. Turkey’s education expenditure data were taken from the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years of 2011-2020. It has been estimated for the years of 2021-2030 using Standard Grey Model (GM (1,1)) and Exponential Grey Model (EXGM (1,1)). The percentage relative error (RPE) between the actual and the predicted values. Also, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were determined using the actual and the predicted data from 2011-2020. Consequently, the MAPE values were calculated as 3,32 % and 3,09 % for GM (1,1) and EXGM (1,1) models, respectively. R 2 value which shows the correlation between the actual and predicted values was determined as 0,9845 and 0,9846 for GM (1,1) and EXGM (1,1), respectively. It has been determined that the estimation precision of the EXGM (1,1) method is higher according to calculated errors and R 2 values. Accordingly, education expenditures were estimated for the years 2021-2030. Hereby, it is predicted that our country’s education expenditures will increase exponentially in the next 10 years.