Research Information System
International Conference on Energy, Environment and Storage of Energy, Kayseri, Turkey, 19 - 21 November 2020, vol.1, pp.124-129
The use of fossil based fuels or their synthetic derivatives in energy consumption constitutes an
important part of energy consumption. The use of fossil-based fuels as the main energy source in internal
combustion engines has made motor vehicles one of the main responsible for the formation of air
pollution. In addition, exhaust emissions that are released after combustion in motor vehicles have
immediate and direct-acting toxic properties as well as polluting effects. Therefore, researches on
reducing the damages of motor vehicle emissions and control systems developed against them are
increasingly continuing. In this study, predictions that may occur until 2040 are estimated considering
the increase statistics in the num ber of automobiles in Turkey for the 2004-2019 year. In consideration
of these data, fuel saving and the amount of reduction in CO2 emission from automobiles in 20% of
these automobiles, to be achieved in case one or more of the cylinders are temporarily deactivated, has
been calculated.In these calculations, the annual average mileage of the automobiles was taken as basis
by using TUIK data, and the amount of fuel consumed by automobiles and the amount of emitted CO2
emission were calculated.According to the estimation results, the total number of automobiles in 2020,
2030 and 2040 will be approximately 14,313,428, 25,441,821 and 40,595,492 million respectively, and
the fuel consumption values have been obtained as 13.7, 24.5 and 38.8 million m3 respectively.
Accordingly, the total carbon dioxide (CO2) exhaust emission amounts are estimated as approximately
30.1, 55.4 and 89.9 million tons, respectively.Based on 2019, it is estimated that the total number of
automobiles will increase by 89% in 2030 and 202% in 2040.Compared to 2019, it is predicted that the
total amount of CO2 emissions will increase by 97% in 2030 and 220% in 2040.As a result, according
to the automobile fuel types in Turkey in the event of temporarily deactivating of each 20% of the a
automobiles, CO2 emissions in 2040 will decrease 1.1 million tons for diesel vehicles, to 318 thousand
tons for gasoline vehicles and 377 thousand tons for LPG vehicles. Therefore, compared to 2020, a
reduction in CO2 emissions in 2040 will be 270% in diesel, 179% in gasoline and 98% in LPG.