Ekonomik büyüme, reel döviz kuru ve dış ticaret arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri: 2003-2017 Türkiye örneği

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Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Kayseri University, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, Turkey

Approval Date: 2019

Thesis Language: Turkish

Student: Gamze GÜL

Supervisor: Hatice Erkekoğlu

Open Archive Collection: AVESIS Open Access Collection

Abstract:

In recent years, studies on the sources of economic growth have been concentrated on the subject of foreign trade. In a globalizing world, exports and imports have a big impact on both the real economy and the financial economy. The aim of this study is; Turkey's 2003-2017 period to quarterly using three months datas real GSYIH of total exports, total imports and the real exchange rate based on the VAR model of the causal relationship between Granger Causality Test methods to analyze and interpret it. In the literature; export-economic growth, import-economic growth, foreign trade terms-economic growth, export-real exchange rate, import-real exchange rate, foreign trade terms-real exchange rate, and causality relations are examined in four variables in the form of the studies have been different and contributed from in this respect. In the study, economic growth (real GDP), Foreign Trade (total exports - total imports) and real exchange rate variables are used. Graphical analysis of the variables was found to be non-stationary in the level values and was stabilized by taking first order differences according to the Generalized Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. By applying Cusum and Cusum Square tests to the variables, no structural breakage was detected. After the determination of the appropriate delay length LM test and Heteroskedasticity Tests were applied to determine autocorrelation and the changing variance problem whether or not. According to the results of these tests, it has been concluded that there is no autocorrelation and changing variance problem. Three main conclusion were obtained from this study; according to the JJ Cointegration test, with the Johansen Cointegration analysis the first is that there is no long - term relationship between real GDP, total exports, total imports and real exchange rates. Secondly, in Granger causality tests carried out within the framework of vector autoregressive model (VAR), it was concluded that the changes in the independent variables in the short-run for the Turkish economy did not affect the dependent variable significantly. It has been concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship between exports and imports only where exports are independent variables and imports are dependent variables. The last one is that the results obtained from the analysis of impact-response to real GDP, total exports, total imports and real exchange rates and the separation of variance are consistent with each other. The first of the findings; The variables of growth, total exports and real exchange rates are explained by the most powerful ones rather than other variables. Latter; The variables explaining the total imports the most belong to real GDP, total imports and total exports shocks respectively. Keywords: Real Exchange Rate, Real GDP, Exports, Imports, Johansen Cointegration Analysis, JJ-Cointegration Test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, Granger Causality Test, Impact Response Analysis, Variance Decomposition, Turkey